Risk Assessment

I listened to a great radio show on CBC recently about “Risk”.  It impressed me enough to want to blog about some of the great points it raised about risk.  Risk assessment isn’t easy, because the two major factors in the assessment, a) Probability of Risk and b)Potential of Loss are difficult to guess accurately.

But the risk assessment does allow us to make educated, rational estimates of risk and to asses the costs of preparing (or not preparing) for risk.  Most cities in earthquake zones have made assessments and invested in protecting themselves from risk.  Hurricane Katrina savagely exposed the delinquency of government in protecting New Orleans and its people.

One of the points the radio show made was that we haven’t come down out of the trees long enough to change our instinctive risk-taking strategy.  In other words we don’t ‘do’ risk assessment.  As the saying goes.. ‘don’t do the crime unless you are prepared to do the time’, (try telling that to the guys in jail).   Despite huge amounts of data, humongous number-crunching computers and a rational brain, as individuals, groups, nations or as a species we simply don’t think ahead.

In fact almost all blunders and disasters of the last 100 years could have been avoided by implementing adequate risk management.  For example, the still unfolding Fukushima nuclear disaster was widely explained-away by being an ‘unprecedented’ tsunami.  Actually the nuclear industry has a lot to answer for by not preparing adequately for earthquakes and for falsifying safety records.  Of course everybody already knew that the assurances the nuclear industry gives the public isn’t worth the paper its written on.

Another clear example of not implementing adequate risk management is Climate Change.  In this case the experts in the field are unanimous about the enormous risk.  But their risk assessment is being strenuously trashed by a horrendous case of corporate and political corruption.  As I repeated often in this blog, I feel that the only way to put an end to this insidious corruption is to ban corporations nationally.  I know it sounds totally unworkable, but we only need to do an adequate risk assessment to conclusively prove its our only option left… ;o)

If you haven’t seen this documentary, here is the link to the free download or streaming video.. http://archive.org/details/The_Corporation_ (I really recommend it)

Jet Stream slowing down

This Arctic summer was the warmest in 1,800 years.   Also arctic sea-ice loss hit a new record this summer, beating the previous record ice-loss in 2007. Evidence is building that melting arctic ice is slowing down the jet stream. This is a problem because the jet stream is what moves our precipitation forward.  Meaning that extreme weather events like droughts, blizzards, floods, etc don’t hang around.  A slowing  jet stream appears to be increasing the severity of weather events by what is now being called ‘blocking weather events’.

This year’s extreme drought in the USA is being connected to the extreme melting of the arctic ice.  Of course when that wonderful summer high pressure ridge builds and we get weeks of beautiful, sunny weather, nobody complains.  But this is also going to mean that when arctic air breaks out this winter the ‘cold snap’ could last weeks not days.

The US drought  is already causing food prices to skyrocket as well as causing huge financial losses. In fact the losses  look great enough to stall any alleged ‘recovery’.  So climate change are already having its predicted effects in spades.  You would think that the dramatically large risks to governments and economies around the world would elicit some kind of action.  But the reality is that corrupt corporate and government leadership are deliberately  dropping the ball on this.

US drought produces a repeat of 2008 food crisis

A perfect storm of (ahem) weather disasters are creating a repeat of the 2008 food crisis which produced food riots around the world, the Arab Spring, etc.  Seems that history is repeating itself again.  The latest UN FAO numbers show all food staples spiking upwards in response to the great US drought of 2012. Already panicked nations are stockpiling food. This will no doubt make matters worse.

I know I’m a ‘glass-half-empty’ kinda guy.. in fact I have had to endure taunts of being ‘chicken-little’ from bobble-headed pollyannas.  I don’t mind .. I don’t believe in sacrificing history and common sense in order to appear ‘positive’ to the kool-aid drinking masses.. ;o)

Food Riots in Algeria

“The godfather of global warming”

Riiiight!… Now scientists warning of the effects of Climate Change are being compared to Vito Corleone, the Godfather of the Sicilian Mafia?? …COME ON!! …Dr. James Hansen, head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies had the temerity to give an interview to AP suggesting that the devastating weather extremes being experience by the whole planet are clear proof that Climate Change is destroying our economy and lives… here is the link..

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/technology/environment/Study+global+warming+godfather+Texas+drought/7044475/story.html

The oil corporations and their corporate allies are in full spin cycle trying to explain away the frightening increase of extreme weather events throughout the planet. Their main weapon is ad hominem attacks and death threats on any scientist brave enough to tell the truth about what is happening to our weather.. here is another link to this problem.. http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/mar/03/michael-mann-climate-change-deniers

Spin and threaten as they like, the Climate Change Deniers are faced with an avalanche of extreme weather ‘events’ breaking records all over the planet at an ever increasing rate. In fact Dr James Hansen says that he underestimated the rapidity of the change.. see here.. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/i-was-too-optimistic-scientists-climate-fear/story-e6frg6so-1226443398188

As Bob Dylan once sang.. “you don’t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowin’ … ”  ;o)

Ship tracks off US east coast

The above satellite photo shows ‘ship tracks’ off the US coast. Ship tracks are clouds that form from the exhaust of ships in still ocean air. Its a similar process to the jet trails left by aircraft in the upper atmosphere. At all levels, unintended consequences are dogging our footsteps.. ;o)

Drought map

Of course on the west coast it barely feels like summer even happened yet but in the US the drought is busy destroying the half the corn crop.. to the point that voices are being raised questioning the use of corn for fuel (ethanol).. DUH!!.. only in the USA would they turn food into gasoline.. pfffttt!..

The drought which is being called the worst drought in 50 years..  is actually getting worse.. wiping out nearly 40% of the soy crop as well.. and yet again the climate change elephant in the room seems strangely hard for the corporate media to see.. here is the article in The Guardian..

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/aug/02/drought-worsens-midwest-corn-crop

here is the map..

Droughts throughout US summer 2012 (could the Climate Change Deniers be wrong?.. duh!.. ;o)

Oh No! Here we go again

New Zealand scientist are calling the El Nino of 2012. (as if we don’t have enough going on this particular year!..ha..ha.) I guess we can expect a warmish wet winter here on the coast, AND to get our asses kicked with the wind storms knocking out power etc.. groan.. (notice how we are getting back-to-back ‘el nino/la ninas?.. nobody is talking about the  global warming elephant in the room.. pfffttt!)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/01/us-newzealand-weather-elnino-idUSBRE87005Y20120801

Wind storm damage